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The price rise was not weekend the result of an overall shortage of crude, but a lack of light, sweet crude for gasoline in China. There's a lot of sour crude in the world, more than anyone can use. More than anyone wants right now. Hardly empty. It is also generally accepted in the industry, as weekend I understand it, that we have probably found all of the major oil reserves that we are going to find. That doesn't mean there aren't major reserves out there to develop such as offshore Sao Tome or deep in weekend Siberia. It does mean that, most likely, knowing what we know about the Earth's geology, there probably is not another Ghawar formation (the world largest petroleum deposit, located in eastern Saudi Arabia) lurking out there yet to be discovered. This, of course, could be very wrong. But the bet, right now, is that it is not. But as demand across the world rises, and the call on the resource increases, the price will likely slowly but inexorably rise. Efficiency and conservation will buy room, but the economic affect of using less and using more efficienctly is equivalent to increased production, and those extra barrels will be used by someone somewhere.
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